Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly affected as they lack the resources multinational companies can devote to complex treasury operations. Rapid Global Trade and Capital Integration with Fragmented Economic Governance The rapid global tradiny of trade and capital flows over recent decades has been a key driver of global growth. World trade almost tripled from the early s towhile international capital flows increased almost five-fold over the same period see Figures 1 and 2. These dynamics also fuelled the ongoing shift in economic power towards emerging economies that have greatly benefited from the opportunities of foreign investments, global supply chains and open capital flows.
Despite this rapid integration of economic activities, global cooperation on regulating these flows remains limited.
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The international monetary system remains largely unchanged from its origins gglobal a g,obal that was significantly less economically and financially integrated see Appendix: Historical Overview of the International Monetary System. Many observers believe this played a role tradingg fuelling the global financial crisis that began in The crisis spurred an unprecedented degree of global coordination through the G20 process, including a commitment from the French Presidency in to reform the international monetary system. But developments over past decades have not matched these expectations.
Countries have not universally discarded the management of exchange rates, and have often resorted to resolving domestic economic challenges without regard for external impacts. This has led to an accumulation of substantial macroeconomic imbalances that have left the international monetary system increasingly fragile. It is clear that given these pressures, this system has to evolve.
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The widespread view is shu the world is moving towards a multipolar currency g,obal based on the euro, dollar and yuan, in which greater competition between reserve currencies would lead to greater discipline to maintain the respective economies in balance. But the path to such a system is highly uncertain. These currency areas, each of which could serve as an anchor for global stability, face the need for significant internal adjustments that constrain their international roles. This will be further explored in the following section.
Reversion to Regionalism
gloabl The adjustment processes will play out as complex two-level games with effects at both the domestic and international levels. While at the global level synchronous and fored adjustments between the different economies may be desirable, individual players take independent decisions that may lead to sub-optimal global outcomes and thereby create a challenging environment for businesses and policy-makers alike. Navigating the Uncertainties Ahead Building robust and resilient strategies in the face of these uncertainties requires tradlng appreciation of the different ways in which Helenf adjustment processes may unfold.
Traditional modelling techniques are ill suited to account for the dynamics of such complex systems at the intersection of politics and economics. They often rely on data that support existing expectations and assume that the future will largely resemble the past. It is thus important to complement such models with an approach that explores a wider set of plausible futures. It builds on a series of strategic conversations with leaders from the public, private and academic sectors, exploring their most pressing concerns and uncertainties. The purpose of this report is not to advocate or predict specific outcomes. Rather, it explores the critical uncertainties underlying the future international roles of the euro, the dollar and the yuan, and depicts possible future states for the international monetary system based on policy choices in each of the currency areas.
The year was chosen as a benchmark for these scenarios in order to allow for significant structural adjustments to play out independently from current political constraints. Box 1: Implications for the real economy Tensions and uncertainties in the international monetary system create a host of challenges for businesses. Interviews with executives from a range of companies in the real economy highlighted the following: Small and medium-sized firms are more exposed to currency fluctuations than their larger counterparts, as they either cannot access or lack the capabilities to implement effective hedging practices.
Large firms with globally distributed operations actively redistribute business activities from one jurisdiction to another in response to shifting currency values. Correlation between emerging market currencies is driving some firms in those markets to explore switching to trade contracts denominated in local currency rather than in dollars or euros. Executives are increasingly concerned about the possibility of extreme events, particularly the legal uncertainty surrounding the implications of a unilateral break from the euro by one or more countries.
This section focuses in turn on each currency, assessing the internal adjustment challenges that influence their future international roles as anchors for global stability. It also provides a deep dive on the dynamic interaction of these adjustment challenges at the global and regional levels. Since the end of World War II, the world economy has relied on the US dollar to lubricate the flow of global trade and finance. It accounts for the majority of global foreign exchange reserves and worldwide foreign currency trading and is the dominant currency for invoicing international trade.
Many experts foresee a movement towards a multipolar currency system in which both the euro and the yuan play a bigger role. In earlythe Chinese authorities started to promote the international use of the yuan in trade settlements with key trading partners and the development of offshore markets in Hong Kong. Developments over recent years have challenged this multipolar view.
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The European debt crisis threatened to evolve into a source of severe instability for the world economy; a growing need for structural adjustments in the Chinese economy and possible contagion from Europe raised new questions about the path and pace of yuan internationalization; and despite persistent fiscal challenges, the dollar continued to play the role of a safe haven currency for global investors. The Eurozone, the United States and China all face policy choices while adjusting to internal and external imbalances, affecting the stability of the international monetary system. How these choices play out and are influenced by developments at the global level will determine whether the individual currencies will be able to function as anchors for global economic stability.
Helene zhu global forex trading the individual challenges for each currency area are widely acknowledged, there is a high level of uncertainty about how policy-makers will respond to their being interlinked in a complex two-level game between domestic priorities and international impacts see deep dive on the dynamics of imbalances. Box 2: The Dynamics of Adjustments The uncertainties outlined above for the euro, the yuan and the dollar may be specific to a particular region, but they also interact with each other in a dynamic way. While policy choices are based on the specific national settings, their consequences are felt throughout the world economy.
In the past, policy choices within the Eurozone, China and the United States have all contributed to the build-up of substantial macroeconomic imbalances at the regional and global levels see Deep Dive I and IIboth contributing to and highlighting the vulnerabilities of the current international monetary system. How these adjustments and interactions may evolve in the future will be explored in the Scenarios section below. Underpinned by a strong and independent central bank, the euro contributed to the stability of the European economy for much of the past decade, and played a stabilizing role for Central and Eastern European countries seeking to join the currency bloc. The ensuing loss of confidence in the political cohesion of the Eurozone has made the management of existing internal imbalances more challenging, and tainted expectations for the euro playing a more prominent international role.
Amid these developments, the following uncertainties will influence whether the euro becomes an anchor or a threat for global economic and monetary stability. Governance structures: To what extent will the Eurozone move towards comprehensive fiscal and economic governance? One of the fundamental weaknesses of the Eurozone is its governance structure, initially created as a loose compromise between national and supranational competencies.
Monetary policy for the entire Eurozone is determined by the European Central Bank ECBwhile fiscal and structural economic policies remain the prerogative of each member state, loosely controlled by the Stability and Growth Pact. Despite rapid expansion of cross-border lending with capital moving freely across the Eurozone, member states remain individually responsible for backstopping national banking systems. However, these steps have remained incremental and have not significantly changed the fiscally Helene zhu global forex trading nature of the Eurozone.
Implementation of these ongoing governance reforms as well as a more comprehensive alignment of monetary, fiscal and structural economic policies through its governance system will be critical for re-establishing the credibility of the euro on international markets. The integration of sovereign debt markets: Will European sovereign debt markets integrate or remain fragmented? Despite increasing financial integration within the Eurozone, markets for sovereign debt have remained fragmented. Given the recent readjustment of sovereign bond yields gpobal the Eurozone periphery, experts and policy-makers have examined different forms of Helenr debt pooling. But such moves require a Hepene strengthening of surveillance mechanisms and are subject tradiing a myriad of political uncertainties.
Economic growth: Will tracing Eurozone revive economic growth or stagnate and decline in relation to the rest of the tradin Closing the competitiveness gap between periphery and core economies will be pivotal to building political cohesion and more gobal monetary policy-making. The speed and success of EU and Eurozone enlargement could alter this outlook, however, with the prospect of new dynamic markets joining the currency zone over the next decade. The dollar accounts for Nonetheless, persistent fiscal pressures continue to raise questions about its long-term soundness. The fiscal position: Will the United States manage to control its public finances or will it continue to accumulate unsustainable levels of debt?
The fiscal position of the US government provides growing uncertainty for the international role of the dollar. This is particularly concerning in an economic environment plagued by high levels of long-term unemployment and a protracted domestic political context that has hindered progress on fiscal reforms. Despite a favourable demographic outlook, unfunded liabilities to entitlement programmes are bound to further expand the US deficit in the coming decades. Over the long term, this situation may well undermine market trust in the ability of the US government to service its debt, and thus reduce the attractiveness of US treasury securities.
The trade deficit: Will structural reforms bring down the US trade deficit or will it continue to rely on debt-financed consumption? Over recent decades, the United States has consistently spent more on imports than it has earned on exports, relying on inflows of foreign capital to fund the gap. Broadly speaking there are two main theoretical explanations for the persistence of this deficit, as well as diverging views on its seriousness. One focuses on the rise of export-oriented economies in Asia and the desirability of investments in US capital markets.
The other main explanation focuses on the high levels of US government debt and dis-saving by US households, arguing that the current account deficit is driven by profligate household spending that will persist in the absence of policy reforms. Regardless of the cause, however, it is known that reserve currencies may be subject to crises of confidence when they accumulate large deficits. The impact of a credibility problem may be even more severe if alternative reserve currencies emerge. Protectionism and competitive devaluation: Will the US revert to protectionism or support an open international trade system?
Disagreements about the reasons for the US trade imbalance have had a polarizing impact on discussions among policy-makers. The temptation to assign responsibility to foreign practices has the potential to escalate into protectionism and competitive devaluation of currencies. At the same time, US policies are often perceived by emerging market economies as destabilizing: For example, emerging economies fear that expansionary monetary policy in the US could export inflation. With the dollar at the centre of the current international monetary system, US monetary policy can cause volatilities around the world.
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